{"text_format":"1","workbook":"xlsx","n_sheets":4,"sheets":["Instructions","Simulator","Hold1","Hold2"],"not_rendered":{"charts":2,"images":0,"macros":1,"external_links":0,"defined_names":0,"comments":0,"pivot_tables":0},"unopened":[],"bounds":{"document_bytes":16777216,"sheet_cells":100000,"rows_first":2000,"rows_last":500,"rows_between":2000,"halvings":0,"cell_chars":16384,"cell_head_chars":4096},"cells_cut":0,"cells_raw":0,"read":"whole","date_system":"1900"}

{"sheet":"Instructions","index":0,"n_rows":41,"n_cols":13,"rows_kept":41,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
[]
["(1) This is a Monte Carlo simulator used to teach principles of asset allocation",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"(5) The bottom left chart shows a simulated path for wealth."]
[null,"FIN 352","California State University, Northridge",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"The gray line shows the path wealth should take to reach target "]
[null,"Professor James Dow",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Pressing the button will create one random wealth path "]
[]
[null,"This is for educational purposes only, do not use for actual investing decisions"]
[]
["(2) There are four worksheets",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"(6) The bottom right chart shows the distribution of ending wealth"]
[null,"\"Instructions\" ",null,"-> Instructions on using the simulator",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"20,000 runs (hard-coded in the macro)"]
[null,"\"Simulator\"",null,"-> Enter your assumptions and observe the results",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Bars are set at +-10% of target"]
[null,"\"Hold1\"",null,"-> Used by the program when drawing charts",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Y-axis shows lower-bound of range"]
[null,"\"Hold2\"",null,"-> Used by the program when drawing charts",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Green bars show probability of being above target"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Red bars show probability of being below target"]
[null,"The \"Simulator\" worksheet consists of three blocks and two charts"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"(7) The light green block summarizes the distribution on the chart"]
["(3) The light purple block   \"Return Distributions\"",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"-Probability that outcome is less than target"]
[null,"Holds expected returns, standard deviations and correlations for three assets",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"-Probability that outcome is less than half of target"]
[null,null,"These numbers can be changed by the user",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"-Other statistics?"]
[null,"These are listed as stocks, bonds and cash, but can be any three assets"]
[null,null,"e.g. cash can be replaced by a third asset such as real estate",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"(8) Details of Monte Carlo simulation"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Asset returns are assumed normal"]
["(4)  The light green block \"Asset Allocation\" and \"Wealth Goals\"",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Portfolio ER and SD are calculated by formula "]
[null,"The dark green blocks hold variables set by the user",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Portfolio returns are drawn from random distribution"]
[null,"Under Asset Allocation, enter:",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"using inverse normal function"]
[null,null,"The starting asset allocation",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Wealth(t)=(1+R(t))Wealth(t-1) + Saving(t)"]
[null,null,"The change in allocation each year (in percentage points)"]
[null,null,"The allocation to the third asset (cash) is calculated automatically"]
[null,"Under Wealth Goals, enter:"]
[null,null,"Starting Wealth (may be 0)"]
[null,null,"Annual Saving (may be 0)"]
[null,null,"Target Wealth"]
[null,null,"Begin Year"]
[null,"The default of the program is a 40 year investment horizon"]
[null,null,"Begin Year = 1"]
[null,null,"Begin Year > 1 shortens the investment horizon"]
[null,null,null,"Begin year = 11"]
[null,null,null,null,"-> 30 year investment horizon"]
[null,"Portfolio Return gives required and estimated return"]
[null,null,"Required: Given saving plan, the rate needed to hit target"]
[null,null,"Estimated: Average of start and end portfolio expected returns"]
[null,null,"Can be used as a rough guide to set your portfolio allocation"]

{"sheet":"Simulator","index":1,"n_rows":15,"n_cols":13,"rows_kept":15,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
[]
[null,"Return Distributions",null,null,"Corr",null,null,null,null,"Return Outcomes"]
[null,null,"ER","SD","Stocks","Bonds","Cash"]
[null,"Stocks",7.0000000000000007E-2,0.09,1,0.4,0,null,null,"Probability <",null,null,"Other?"]
[null,"Bonds",0.03,0.05,null,1,0,null,null,"Target",0.32934999465942383]
[null,"Cash",0.01,0.01,null,null,1,null,null,".5*Target",7.9999997979030013E-4]
[]
[]
[]
[null,"Asset Allocation",null,null,null,null,null,"Wealth Goals"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Portfolio Return"]
[null,null,"Begin","Change","End",null,null,"Starting Wealth",null,10000,null,"Required",{"$f":"RATE(41-J15,J13,J12,-J14)","v":4.8570275186651801E-2}]
[null,"Stocks",70,-1,{"$f":"C13+D13*(40-M7)","v":30},null,null,"Annual Saving",null,2000,null,"Expected",{"$f":"(C13*C4+C14*C5+C15*C6+E13*C4+E14*C5+E15*C6)/200","v":0.05}]
[null,"Bonds",30,1,{"$f":"C14+D14*(40-M7)","v":70},null,null,"Target Wealth",null,300000]
[null,"Cash",{"$f":"(100-C13-C14)","v":0},{"$f":"D13+D14","v":0},{"$f":"100-E13-E14","v":0},null,null,"Begin  in Year",null,1]

{"sheet":"Hold1","index":2,"n_rows":41,"n_cols":5,"rows_kept":41,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
[0,10000]
[1,11604.066824398893,12485.702751866445,null,-3.959331756011062E-2]
[2,14299.437640408039,15092.136770423243,null,5.9924751083563946E-2]
[3,16615.465051791296,17825.166006517178,null,2.2100688106097992E-2]
[4,18175.165341792464,20690.939224701338,null,-2.6499391297588958E-2]
[5,22369.616528810304,23695.903836715221,null,0.1207389944327967]
[6,24428.489543136471,26846.820406860745,null,2.6318293945873025E-3]
[7,28382.897010618311,30150.777861908398,null,8.000525222939775E-2]
[8,28506.785075107135,33615.209439752682,null,-6.6100086076812614E-2]
[9,32167.898221911124,37247.909412698165,null,5.8270799124749958E-2]
[10,31260.438294072555,41057.050623000127,null,-9.0383894769293843E-2]
[11,37144.898854503088,45051.202870111243,null,0.12426123152492992]
[12,42977.030830534197,49239.352191001897,null,0.10316711296056028]
[13,45989.593123021936,53630.921076930972,null,2.356054555002756E-2]
[14,52344.382379947274,58235.789672150728,null,9.4690754172934294E-2]
[15,57205.976028083031,63064.318002238644,null,5.4668591318254078E-2]
[16,62268.395646841593,68127.36928206544,null,5.3533211587110947E-2]
[17,65642.588135831611,73436.33435583752,null,2.206885972755462E-2]
[18,70601.708875592987,79003.157324198997,null,4.5079281969171915E-2]
[19,76500.50682807705,84840.362416049116,null,5.5222430371396826E-2]
[20,79290.325101105482,90961.082165531276,null,1.0324353468708684E-2]
[21,94880.605910692568,97379.086957586114,null,0.17139897953826921]
[22,92175.949792484127,104108.81600854026,null,-4.9585013428737459E-2]
[23,95671.842618975672,111165.40985143081,null,1.6228667346083747E-2]
[24,104869.07418425968,118564.74439915094,null,7.5228315544708574E-2]
[25,118802.54901429371,126323.46666205187,null,0.11379403244341019]
[26,119132.25479643766,134459.03220035866,null,-1.4059413974822105E-2]
[27,138094.25377653821,142989.74439565997,null,0.1423795680614261]
[28,136574.78381487171,151934.79562982515,null,-2.5485998623531743E-2]
[29,146738.91224104684,161314.31046399235,null,5.9777714436961421E-2]
[30,150069.67494896447,171149.39091477229,null,9.0689149019423168E-3]
[31,145195.39214949717,181462.1639295294,null,-4.580727453301342E-2]
[32,159559.92299814321,192275.83116755064,null,8.5157873577111701E-2]
[33,187268.34584910684,203614.72119909938,null,0.16112080256683758]
[34,187783.62059064241,215504.34423979156,null,-7.9283300748583044E-3]
[35,192492.09335790685,227971.44954343562,null,1.4423370679217767E-2]
[36,198843.43636251916,241044.08558245856,null,2.2605307723064391E-2]
[37,211801.8418542775,254751.66315131169,null,5.5110722748623484E-2]
[38,225103.17111961622,269125.02153482626,null,5.3358031103025894E-2]
[39,241393.50541955256,284196.4978903844,null,6.3483487277674527E-2]
[40,260814.46087417603,300000.00000000105,null,7.2168285656008371E-2]

{"sheet":"Hold2","index":3,"n_rows":20,"n_cols":3,"rows_kept":20,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
[null,0,0]
[null,30000,0]
[null,60000,0]
[null,90000,0]
[null,120000,7.9999997979030013E-4]
[null,150000,6.4500002190470695E-3]
[null,180000,2.7249999344348907E-2]
[null,210000,6.0600001364946365E-2]
[null,240000,0.10215000063180923]
[null,270000,0.13210000097751617]
[null,300000,0.13865000009536743]
[null,330000,0.12890000641345978]
[null,360000,0.11320000141859055]
[null,390000,8.6249999701976776E-2]
[null,420000,6.3850000500679016E-2]
[null,450000,4.5150000602006912E-2]
[null,480000,3.189999982714653E-2]
[null,510000,2.1400000900030136E-2]
[null,540000,1.3550000265240669E-2]
[null,570000,2.7850000187754631E-2]